I feel like I’m a pretty connected guy. Especially during this election, I’m following things pretty closely. Twitter, which has become hugely important this time around, is an provides an endless stream of information. But how much of what’s going down during this campaign is the Canadian public actually paying attention to, and what does it take to begin to sway their opinions, and their votes?

I wonder, because I feel like the Conservative Party have come into this campaign hurting. They’ve made some fairly serious missteps. They’re constantly falling on their faces. And, according to the latest polls and numbers, no one really seems to have noticed. Instead, as far as I can tell, the Liberals and Conservatives—the two front-runners to form the next government—seem to be at relatively the same percentage of popularity as they were going into this election campaign.

What am I missing?

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Here’s something to consider.

On the same day that Canadian opposition parties declared that they can’t support the government’s budget, thus forcing an election, opposition parties in Portugal, a world away, were making the exact same decision.

In Canada, opposition parties forced an election for a very clear set of reasons. The Liberals, under Michael Ignatieff, spelled out these reasons in the weeks leading up to today’s final nail in the coffin, the vote of non-confidence. The Conservatives, they alleged, were hiding information from Canadians; they were refusing to release to Parliament the true cost of some of their major initiatives (expensive fighter jets and American-style mega-jails). The Liberals alleged that the Conservatives were playing fast and loose with their obligations and responsibilities and that Canadians were fed up. The NDP joined the fray when Jack Layton declared his own non-support for the budget as well. The New Democrats alleged that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives don’t understand or support the needs of ordinary, middle-class Canadians and since they refuse to work to make things right, they must go.

At the end of the day both parties agree that the Conservatives have abused their power. As the campaigning begins to ramp up it’s clear that regardless of the nuances in their platforms and strategies their messages, at the core, will be the same: Stephen Harper has taken this country in a direction that Canadians didn’t want it to go.

Mr. Harper has derailed Canada’s national census agency, pulled us out of and stalled support for international environmental agreements, mucked up our foreign aid to developing countries, controlled his government with sealed lips and an iron fist, and tarnished Canada’s image internationally.

That, in my opinion, is the narrative we will see begin to take shape.

In Portugal, on the very same day, important austerity measures were being voted on in that country’s parliament.

Stricken by debt—comparable to the situation in Ireland—Portuguese President Jose Socrates and his governing party felt they had no choice but to push through painful economic measures to try and bring the country back onto its feet. But in a rare show of unity, the country’s opposition parties united to vote against the proposed reforms. Beaten, President Socrates resigned, handing symbolic power to the country’s Prime Minister and effectively ending his government’s rule. An election must now be called.

Two elections, triggered by the very same mechanism, but with two very different catalysts.

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Ah, the sunny fresh feeling of breaking out a brand new post tag. Election 2011.

Yesterday was Budget Day. For a politics geek—like myself—this was a sort of Christmas, in the purely secular sense. Because a budget, in a minority parliament, means a chance for the opposition parties to defeat the government. On big issues like budgets, there has to be a certain level of consensus, see, and yesterday there was not. Ergo, unless last minute concessions are made, we’re headed for a election in May.

The budget itself wasn’t all that bad, actually. Driving home from work I was able to listen to most of the speech from the throne and it sounded pretty good to me. There were concessions in there for the NDP, whose support the Conservatives needed if they wanted to pass the budget, and there was nothing overly ridiculous or offense. But in the end, it wasn’t enough for Jack Layton  and as he has so often done over the past four years he held the balance of power, and this time decided to drop the writ.

Weeks prior, Michael Ignatieff and his Liberals spoke out against the upcoming budget. Ignatieff highlighted some pretty serious concerns facing Stephen Harper’s Conservatives like several RCMP investigations, two historic breaches of parliamentary trust, and some pretty hefty spending on things like fighter jets. The Liberals wouldn’t support the budget of a government that, they said, the people of Canada couldn’t trust. Fair enough; as official opposition it’s their job to oppose the government when they think it’s the right thing to do. A lot of liberals (small “l”) would say that this was a long time coming, and they might be right.

So with the Liberals already lined up against the Conservatives, along with the Bloc (surprise), it was up to Mr. Layton to decide the fate of the government. Weighing the amount of concessions in the federal budget against what the New Democrats had asked for, Jack decided that the needs of middle class Canadians hadn’t been met and that he couldn’t support the budget as it stood.

It’s true that every budget is a kind of political calculation but this is certainly more true in a minority government. The Conservatives hold a balance of power, not the balance of power, and need the support of at least some other members of parliament to operate. In the past, they’ve had that support, and it’s come through making concessions especially during budget time. In the past they’ve catered to Liberal, NDP, and Bloc interests in the hopes of appeasing them and getting their budgets put through. In part, all parties worked together to make things work for Canadians. During the recession this was important. But even in the early days of Stephen Harper’s government his budgets were filled with New Democrat concessions and this was ordinary.

But this budget was different, in my opinion, this was an election budget and I have a sneaky suspicion that it was perhaps never meant to pass.

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It’s March Break and I’m catching up on my reading. Between finishing installments in the Harry Potter series, I’ve been working my way through back issues of The Walrus.

There’s a lot of interesting reading in there but one article that struck a pretty deep chord was Erna Paris’ The New Solitudes which is available online (and makes me wonder why I subscribe to the print edition at all!).

Paris hits on something I’ve been wondering and worrying about for some time now. I’ve written about it here before, and I’ll continue to lament, I’m sure, until things improve. It’s the idea that Canada’s values are eroding, or, at least, changing. It’s the notion that instead of the two solitudes in Canada being the English and the French we are quickly becoming a nation not of two different languages but of two very different sets of values or identities, and they seem at odds with one another.

Let me explain.

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My wife, Maria, and I got together with some friends over the weekend to enjoy a meal, some games, and to chat. The chats were enlightening—except for my contributions, of course—and, like conversations all across this country, the topic of the long-form census came up. Now I know everyone who’s been writing about the census keeps bringing up the fact that it’s so dog-gone strange to be talking about such an obscure topic in the heat of the summer but, really, it is worth saying. Here we are, in the middle of the summer, talking about our national survey. Who would’ve thought. But the fact that the topic is still so talked about—that it isn’t going away—is particularly interesting to me.

My friends and I are from a particular segment of society. We’re young. We are, as one of my friends pointed out, “highly-educated” compared to most standards. Some of us were raised in a conservative tradition, others more liberal, and all of us are involved in the life of our local communities in some way. All of us agreed that scraping the long-form census was a very bad idea but beyond that, as the conversation evolved, it became clear that we also harboured a deep-seeded worry as well.

The worry that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives might one day win a majority.

This is the worry, and I know we’re not alone.

“What would he do with a majority?” a friend asked, “look what he’s doing under a minority government when his power is restricted.”

Indeed, it’s something to be concerned about.

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