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31 Jul 2010

Some Stats on Stats

Author: Keith Little | Filed under: Politics

Image by Kevin Dooley

Really, still on this?  Really.

With only, literally, days until this year’s census forms go to the printing presses one has to wonder if it’ll do any good to continue to try and put pressure on the Harper government, but one must try. I’ve been on holidays the past few days and, believe me, the only reason I haven’t been writing up a storm is because I haven’t been able to. There is something to be said for the blissful beauty of an Internet-free existence—but there are other things that must be said, too. A lot has continued to brew over the long-form census, and a lot still needs to be said. The fact that the Conservatives are pushing ahead with their agenda to scrap the census is mind-boggling, but pushing ahead they are and I’m growing a bit tired of trying to be civil about it all. It’s ridiculous, but rather than editorialize about why the move to scrap the long-form census is a bad idea let me try, and I stress try, to muster up some non-partisan stats for y’all. Because after all, this is about stats, right?

Stephen Harper, alongside his Minister, Tony Clement, has been continually harping on this line of the long-form census being too intrusive, too coercive, and the inappropriateness of Canadians being faced with fines and jail time if they refuse to fill it out. Truthfully, that is quite frightening and if I didn’t trust a non-partisan organization like StatsCan, I would worry about being forced to divulge personal information under threat of imprisonment. But StatsCan isn’t Stalinist Russia, I don’t think. StatsCan isn’t the Conservative Party of Canada. StatsCan isn’t the Liberals or the NDP. StatsCan is a non-political, governmental organization. Their interest is to pass along vital information about the Canadian population for others to use. For the government to use in social planning, program implementations, spending, and to understand what the country that they’re responsible for serving looks like. A lot has been said about the government flying blind without the long-form census, and this is entirely true. How do you know who your country is without reliable census data?

But, I digress, there are people who are uncomfortable filling out the census… right? Maybe not.

Statistics, gleaned from StatsCan itself, which came out during the recent parliamentary committee hearing on the issue have been somewhat surprising, to say the least.

In fact, despite Tony Clement’s assurances that there are people who feel coerced and intruded upon by the mandatory long-form census there have only been 3—three!—complaints made to the Federal Privacy Commissioner in the past 10 years regarding the long-form census. So what Mr. Clement is saying, in essence, is that there are 3 people who’ve felt coerced and intruded upon enough to make a stink about it. Are there others who have complained to him personally? And how do we know, what facts does he present? So far, none.

Furthermore, through a query to StatsCan a little earlier in the week we found out that despite supposed (though now questionable) complaints about the excessive jail time threat for those that refused the census a total of zero people—that is, no people at all—have ever been jailed for refusing to fill out the long-form census… in the history of the census.

Now this just boggles the mind.

As time runs out to save the long-form census, as the printing presses begin to roll printing out the voluntary forms instead we’re supposed to believe what exactly? That this census is being canceled because people feel coerced and intruded upon? What people? Because Canadians are suffering unjust jail terms for refusing to fill out the form? What people? Where?

Instead, the real people are those lining up against the cancellation of the long-form census. They are charities, businesses, municipal and provincial governments, think tanks, all the opposition parties in Ottawa, and ordinary Canadians. These are the people you can count and number and they are certainly more than three.

I guess it’s the supreme irony that the Conservative government is refusing to acknowledge the stats on the issue. When facts and statistics show that Canadians are not opposed to the census, they ignore it. Instead, they stand on anecdotal claims. Tony Clement swears that he met a guy once, in a bar, that was offended at being asked how many hours a week he spent doing housework. Are we to end the most important survey in Canada because of some guy in a bar? I jest, but really, what about the rest of Canada? I mean, seriously, I’m a student of Political Science, I know the importance and the purpose of our Charter of Rights and Freedoms but if protecting minority groups means protecting three people, and maybe some guy you met when you were slightly tanked, by scrapping our only reliable source of national data then I think we need to think again. That certainly wouldn’t pass the Oakes Test, Mr. Clement.

But it isn’t ignorance of the facts, it’s manufacturing of the facts themselves, that really bother me. Not only is the Conservative government, under Mr. Harper, setting in motion a national crisis over the long-form census, they’re making it up. They’re manufacturing the crisis itself. They’re manufacturing this supposed base of Canadians—base Canadians(?)—that oppose the long-form census. For all the rest of us can tell, these people don’t exist. Even the hard-nosed libertarian this morning on the CBC Radio program The House admitted to receiving the long-form census, refusing to fill it out, and instead being given the short-form to complete. No jail time. No fines. No hassle. Instead, a viable and intelligent solution. Don’t want to fill out the mandatory long-form? Fill out the short-form and we’ll send the long-form to someone else, someone selected by StatsCan so the sample is still accurate.

This is a made up crisis.

Still, the Conservatives appear to be moving steadfastly towards their goal; their most recent solution for concerned Canadians which I heard yesterday on the radio was to fund their own (damn) surveys if they’re so concerned. Instead of relying on publicly collected data, charities, businesses and municipalities are being urged to privately fund their own research. And while Minister Clement has agreed to hear out the opinions of Canadians and those in the Industry Committee, I can’t see how there’ll be enough time for reasonable debate before the census goes to print. Once voluntary census hits the presses I wonder what else we can do. We’ve spoken, they haven’t listened. Nearly every organization in Canada worth its salt has spoken, they haven’t listened. Creative and constructive solutions have been presented, here and elsewhere, and they haven’t listened. For some reason, beyond the reach of rational fact and statistical evidence, the Conservatives seem bent on getting rid of good data for Canadians. What next?

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1 Comment to “Some Stats on Stats”

  1. [...] my article Some Stats on Stats, I talked about my grief with the Conservatives who are relying on anecdotal evidence, rather than [...]

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